NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Heat: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27db6d5331ee4203d1629851d4d3dcdd2aa9a27a6587848eaa04d0fb7b94b956
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Pacers, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 70c | 218.18$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.34 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Heat | 65c | 170$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x48d7…1bd1backed Pacers | 30c | 165.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Heat | 65c | 161$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Pacers | 28c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Pacers | 35c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Pacers | 35c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…3b16backed Pacers | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Heat | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Pacers | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Pacers | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Pacers | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Heat | 65c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Pacers | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8b…d1dfbacked Heat | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…826abacked Heat | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…aab4backed Heat | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Pacers vs. HeatHeat won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.