NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e4fb2ce0c6f6c982bfdb50d0fa76e4222630820796d656b0383c8d19cad169c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 47c | 4,984$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.71 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.58 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 52c | 2,617$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.31 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 50c | 2,160$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 1,583$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over | 49c | 1,475$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.09 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Over | 54c | 1,461$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.94 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 982.8$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.06 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 817.41$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 7c | 714.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Under | 46c | 567.39$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 313.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.36 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 219.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 53c | 126$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…92cbbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…218cbacked Over | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 51c | 28.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…7544backed Under | 48c | 23.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Over | 52c | 23.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…cdccbacked Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 23.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Over | 56c | 20.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…39ccbacked Over | 56c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 229.5this page
- Pacers vs. HeatHeat won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.