NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48768b882ad27b5fff076f8bd5529203a623d6b58c8406413e70194f365622f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 18,829$9,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,352.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 47c | 5,129$2,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412.51 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 4,493$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Under | 54c | 3,012$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.24 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Under | 53c | 2,003$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 56c | 1,921$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.94 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 1,719$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.51 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 6c | 1,522$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 46c | 1,500$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 1,168$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.72 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 621$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.27 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 2c | 553$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 54c | 427.41$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.61 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 47c | 399.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.99 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 10c | 305$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…435cbacked Under | 54c | 230$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Under | 50c | 202$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 194.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 48c | 188.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…bd61backed Over | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 48c | 153.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 54c | 128$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 57c | 113.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 54c | 113$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Over | 45c | 112.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Under | 54c | 108$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6d…d25abacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Under | 53c | 94.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 76.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Over | 46c | 50.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…0c7dbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…7052backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Over | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 42.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 43c | 39.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 39.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4de3backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 46c | 31.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Over | 48c | 26.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d3bebacked Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 51c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 51c | 20.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 231.5this page
- Pacers vs. HeatHeat won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.