NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aeb9f3d93c40951346a5979255f51e826dbe0fb850f85400e5670dc4d9dfb95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Pacers | 51c | 71,718$36,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,576.12 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Heat | 49c | 47,086$23,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,013.7 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 49c | 17,290$8,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,820.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Pacers | 49c | 10,313$5,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,053.37 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Heat | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Heat | 49c | 4,151$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.71 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Heat | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.98 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 47c | 1,739$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.58 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Pacers | 52c | 1,542$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.92 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 61c | 1,360$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.8 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Pacers | 67c | 819.36$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.97 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 53c | 724.18$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Pacers | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.8 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Pacers | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Pacers | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Heat | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Pacers | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Pacers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pacers | 34c | 199.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…5f29backed Heat | 51c | 173.48$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Heat | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 127 | 63%80 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Heat | 49c | 79.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Heat | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Pacers | 52c | 72.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Heat | 49c | 61.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Heat | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Pacers | 52c | 47.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Heat | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Pacers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Heat | 50c | 40.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b783backed Pacers | 52c | 38.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…eaf6backed Pacers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Pacers | 52c | 23.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Pacers | 52c | 20.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Pacers | 52c | 20.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9c…aaf9backed Heat | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 68cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)this page
- Pacers vs. HeatHeat won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.