NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa440e95cd8d414e62936b4a2d58a7672024213a686e04434175926bac9ac0fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18d1…dbcbbacked Pacers | 60c | 41,973$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…5f29backed Heat | 43c | 11,450$4,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,541 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 41c | 8,492$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,997.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Heat | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160 | 214 | 46.7%100 W · 114 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heat | 39c | 4,998$1,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,048.91 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 38c | 4,541$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,809.27 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Pacers | 52c | 3,509$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.68 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Heat | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Heat | 44c | 2,251$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.68 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Pacers | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Heat | 43c | 1,933$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.81 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat | 40c | 1,900$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.5 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Pacers | 52c | 1,797$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.72 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Heat | 42c | 1,552$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Heat | 44c | 1,500$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Pacers | 52c | 1,306$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.12 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 50c | 1,306$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Pacers | 58c | 1,019$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.55 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa392…1415backed Heat | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a51abacked Pacers | 50c | 998.76$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.38 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat | 45c | 916$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.8 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Pacers | 50c | 915.39$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.49 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat | 40c | 875$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 52c | 765.52$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.53 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Heat | 38c | 750$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Heat | 38c | 750$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 47c | 594.76$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.64 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…da9cbacked Heat | 44c | 588.63$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Pacers | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Heat | 41c | 400$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Heat | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Pacers | 51c | 390$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Pacers | 56c | 357.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.47 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Pacers | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 51c | 329.29$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Heat | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Pacers | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Heat | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 42c | 223.87$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.55 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Pacers | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 40c | 185$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.42 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed Heat | 43c | 144.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Heat | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 46c | 124.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Heat | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Heat | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Pacers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Pacers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 44.1%104 W · 132 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Heat | 44c | 82.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Heat | 47c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Heat | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…95ccbacked Heat | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Pacers | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Heat | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Heat | 42c | 56.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pacers | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Heat | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Pacers | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Pacers | 51c | 49.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Heat | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Pacers | 62c | 45.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Pacers | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ad…69ccbacked Heat | 43c | 41.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Heat | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Heat | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Heat | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Heat | 43c | 26.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…9dcebacked Pacers | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pacers | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked Pacers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Pacers | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…a114backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)this page
- Pacers vs. HeatHeat won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.