Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. UCF Knights: O/U 138.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27f05061331209e2a93e484f580d84a3acd365eab626d902efdd095fec410fb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Under | 46c | 35,566$16,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,505.02 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 28,142$14,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,244.16 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 48c | 3,884$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.62 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 53c | 3,038$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.84 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 8c | 749$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 52c | 360$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 47c | 348.52$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.78 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Over | 52c | 324.7$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 307.03$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.23 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 8c | 266$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 10c | 235$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 12c | 196.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 55c | 181.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Over | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Over | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Over | 56c | 69.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 46c | 38.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 310 | 57.4%178 W · 132 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 53c | 37.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Over | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- West Virginia Mountaineers vs. UCF Knights: O/U 138.5this page
- Spread: UCF Knights (-3.5)West Virginia Mountaineers won
- West Virginia Mountaineers vs. UCF KnightsWest Virginia Mountaineers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.