Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28165d3a30a37688fc41fbd71a17df7814a579dccfd369607e3116c80eeedd6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 42c | 4,268$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,476.58 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 68c | 1,515$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.19 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,305$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 1,096$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,065$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.67 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 1,017$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 727.34$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 68c | 700.74$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.67 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 20c | 643.21$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.44 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 10c | 604.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.71 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 14c | 539.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.5 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 513.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.8 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 459.94$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 386.08$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 3c | 366.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.31 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 9c | 332.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.02 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 18c | 282.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.42 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 8c | 268.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.9 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed Yes | 11c | 224.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 8c | 201.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.57 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 74c | 190.13$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed No | 68c | 188.09$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.24 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…5a2dbacked Yes | 16c | 166.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 21c | 165.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 72c | 164.14$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 10c | 161.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.83 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 8c | 143.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.15 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1ca5backed Yes | 8c | 141.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 10c | 128.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 107.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 104.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…9725backed Yes | 52c | 95.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…0e39backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 58c | 25.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 72c | 24.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 56c | 23.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 70c | 20.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3947backed No | 65c | 18.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 69c | 16.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.