Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f9379945d1256418ff88dd0dd67232236f2fdc391e7102d8b6c364d53064c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed Yes | 2c | 1,237$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 786.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 38c | 589.91$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.73 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 6c | 447.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 67c | 346.07$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 283.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 41c | 242.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 228.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d83…d948backed No | 71c | 214.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 26c | 199.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 189.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.13 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…30b3backed Yes | 22c | 188.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 31c | 179.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…b899backed Yes | 40c | 151.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 135.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 35c | 127.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 36c | 120.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed No | 57c | 112.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…3b83backed Yes | 54c | 107.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 43c | 107.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 71c | 106.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 104.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 103.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 25c | 95.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…89d2backed Yes | 34c | 90.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 41c | 87.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 87.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 41c | 87.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 79c | 86.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 70c | 81.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 48c | 78.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…88c2backed No | 62c | 78.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e2…4c57backed No | 62c | 77.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 77.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 68.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…7275backed Yes | 40c | 66.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed Yes | 28c | 65.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 70c | 62.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 71c | 60.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 32c | 58.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 56.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 35c | 52.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…5a2dbacked Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 31c | 51.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 50.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…c278backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 31c | 48.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 24c | 46.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ba…f4febacked No | 72c | 45.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 76c | 45.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 61c | 44.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 65c | 44.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 30c | 43.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 39.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 73c | 39.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 73c | 39.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe2…c8f2backed Yes | 32c | 38.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a6…0e0bbacked No | 56c | 38.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…4329backed Yes | 37c | 38.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e6…27dfbacked Yes | 35c | 38.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…f6bdbacked No | 64c | 36.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 32c | 34.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 71c | 33.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…f521backed Yes | 34c | 33.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 65c | 32.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 31c | 32.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 38c | 32.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 30.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 62c | 28.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 60c | 27.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 72c | 26.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 68c | 26.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 73c | 25.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 24.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 22.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…a965backed No | 67c | 22.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…1f0cbacked No | 60c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 67c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3584…98a6backed No | 79c | 18.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 77cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 18.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.