Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c423e42a09b09e331d2d5d6bc17b41f61e67dd71c8cab4e7a828ab5c2ff0617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 3,653$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 3,009$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 75c | 2,854$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.26 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…1fd7backed Yes | 6c | 1,190$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 1,182$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.18 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 1,127$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 73c | 1,028$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.84 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 53c | 905.06$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.65 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 64c | 868.79$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.67 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 837.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 721$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.05 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 28c | 631.67$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.87 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 411.74$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 78c | 395.31$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.85 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 300.47$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 283.9$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 71c | 277.83$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 9c | 271.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44a…5130backed No | 71c | 248.28$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 76cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 15c | 243.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.9 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 15c | 239.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 34c | 220.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…a324backed Yes | 17c | 206.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 11c | 191.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 13c | 166.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…c8c4backed Yes | 75c | 150.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 137.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 130.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 18c | 128.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 11c | 126.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.97 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 77c | 126.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…785ebacked Yes | 20c | 119.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 15c | 119.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 57c | 110.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 10c | 109.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 17c | 104.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 101.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…9725backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 14c | 98.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 90.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 12c | 89.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e22…dca9backed Yes | 58c | 83.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 24c | 81.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 31c | 78.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed No | 75c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 70.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 20c | 63.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 16c | 62.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8825backed No | 80c | 57.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 53.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 25c | 47.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 53c | 45.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 56c | 44.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 43.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3947backed Yes | 70c | 42.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 44c | 41.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 66c | 31.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 68c | 31.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…4742backed No | 39c | 28.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 78c | 27.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 54c | 26.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 72c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 72c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 20.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…3175backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 63c | 16.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…316fbacked No | 80c | 14.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.