Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87042d865b735c804eceec9f4ccb5fc5f56a37f7b52eb666054f8043a4a665d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 32c | 3,270$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.15 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…5a2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,169$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 806.12$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 38c | 554.77$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.03 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 36c | 479.41$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.32 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 70c | 416.4$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 412.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 53c | 359$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.78 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 354.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 66c | 339.17$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.11 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 338.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 317.28$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 61c | 315.37$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.53 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed No | 66c | 299.45$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 295.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 76c | 275.65$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 68c | 224.81$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 216.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 214.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 71c | 211.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 210.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 23c | 197.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 36c | 170.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 164.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 64c | 162.04$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 157.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 21c | 154.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 19c | 146.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 51c | 116.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 36c | 110.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 26c | 110.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 71c | 101.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…d74cbacked No | 79c | 100.97$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 64c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 95.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 39c | 95.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 77c | 94.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 75.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 67c | 73.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 56c | 70.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 28c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e22…dca9backed Yes | 34c | 68.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 64c | 67.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…7275backed Yes | 33c | 65.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 64.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 71c | 63.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 25c | 62.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 51c | 59.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 34c | 58.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 44c | 55.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 22c | 55.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 56c | 55.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 38c | 53.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba7…ae8cbacked Yes | 35c | 53.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 72c | 52.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…3b83backed Yes | 61c | 51.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 37c | 51.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…a294backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…6297backed No | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 60c | 49.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 40c | 49.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 79c | 48.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 76c | 48.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed Yes | 42c | 45.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 65c | 44.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee6c…5faabacked Yes | 58c | 42.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 36c | 42.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 30c | 42.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44a…5130backed No | 70c | 41.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 76cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…def2backed Yes | 41c | 39.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 39.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…c278backed Yes | 32c | 37.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 38c | 37.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…1670backed Yes | 36c | 35.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 46c | 35.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 62c | 34.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…2af0backed Yes | 39c | 33.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…17e4backed No | 61c | 32.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…13f1backed No | 61c | 31.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 66c | 28.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 40c | 25.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed Yes | 44c | 22.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.