World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x281d6da4f77201832697147597d13e894775bdab2f24cfa32bfcac48080ff67a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,286$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…0e1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,099$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 23c | 1,052$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.08 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 3c | 880.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 7c | 842.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 7c | 756.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 556.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…2719backed Yes | 31c | 512.44$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 12c | 489.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 398.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 390.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 23c | 342.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 5c | 302.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 296.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 6c | 270.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 8c | 237.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 226.62$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 10c | 224.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 211.86$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 18c | 204.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…f8ecbacked Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 194.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…db8cbacked Yes | 6c | 184.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked Yes | 12c | 184$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked Yes | 10c | 161$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed Yes | 13c | 158.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 14c | 144.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 37c | 134.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…5316backed No | 76c | 132.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 72c | 122.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 20c | 121.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 34c | 118.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…9742backed Yes | 12c | 110.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 75c | 104.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 98.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 40c | 97.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 31c | 65.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 26c | 58.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 77c | 57.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed No | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 55.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed No | 22c | 53.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 33c | 44.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 76c | 43.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 78c | 42.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 29c | 34.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 38c | 27.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 64c | 19.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked Yes | 76c | 17.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.