World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d236d73ee0d51704e2c31258a661c4a20841178623f359c433fed292bfb46a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 61c | 1,141$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.85 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 40c | 698.68$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 68c | 555.3$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.23 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 538.44$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.17 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 430$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.16 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 42c | 369.64$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.72 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 354.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.91$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.16 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 32c | 270.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.28 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 267.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 265$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 233.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 30c | 221.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 205.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 55c | 194.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 189.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.54 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 41c | 179.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 57c | 173$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 172.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 61c | 162.59$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 44c | 158.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.81 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 32c | 150.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 147.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 29c | 137.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 50c | 136.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…3d7bbacked Yes | 69c | 135.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 36c | 134.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 36c | 134.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 39c | 133.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 75c | 132.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 34c | 132.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 35c | 132.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.96$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 23c | 126.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 50c | 125.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 122.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 61c | 109.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 58c | 107.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 107$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 23c | 106.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x637f…9baebacked No | 43c | 102.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 36c | 100.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 99.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 60c | 96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 56c | 88.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 36c | 88.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 87.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 23c | 86.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 86.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…2719backed Yes | 63c | 85.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 84.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 16c | 82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 42c | 80.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 74c | 79.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 77.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…0822backed Yes | 79c | 75.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 21c | 69.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 38c | 68.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 40c | 67.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 41c | 64.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 40c | 62.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 40c | 62.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 61c | 60.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 33c | 60.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 28c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…7b02backed Yes | 69c | 54.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 40c | 50.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 64c | 50.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…2ed5backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 63c | 47.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…b9bebacked No | 68c | 43.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 57c | 42.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 37c | 40.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 44c | 40.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 50c | 39.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 39.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…365bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 45c | 38.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Yes | 35c | 34.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 32.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed No | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 31.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.