TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,493
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,493 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43e0…28f0backed Yes52c1,131$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.372638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes23c891.1$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.149337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes54c888.76$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.763243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes18c796.86$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.622015%3 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-40%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes36c712.46$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.8611636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No29c686.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6228558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes20c660.06$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.762941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes48c646.1$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.611723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes46c495$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.716336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No56c408.85$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.1921844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c380$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3539952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes64c375.65$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.7411039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c341$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.781936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No80c324$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.1836055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes34c307.04$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.2110320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes43c288.96$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5610733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No72c265.1$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.945250%26 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No39c264.93$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8214656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes13c254.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.2422111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes62c243.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.761421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c233.69$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0240648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No34c226.51$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9826632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No45c199.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes14c191.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.375837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes34c181.3$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.2910629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No48c174.17$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.385464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c159.99$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2715766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No49c144.68$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.28825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No45c136.42$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.991612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-64.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No69c134.14$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5315355.6%85 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c130.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.627521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef5f…3d94backed Yes69c129.97$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5868…64c8backed No53c127.89$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No79c125.48$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-45.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No49c123.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.993262.5%20 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No52c121.41$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.52759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb937…a232backed No72c113.83$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes44c110.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.716934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No48c110.02$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5230%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8372…01e6backed No63c106.74$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.05540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes37c105.09$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.094922.4%11 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No57c103.14$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No57c100.29$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0518348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.126533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.055916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4810043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes37c96.55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.145251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No63c94.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.542157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes53c93.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.751838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No73c93.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.655064%32 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c93.35$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9114467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d5b…2f35backed No73c90.14$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3620%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb8d…0511backed Yes46c87.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.561127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c86.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6744138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes23c85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2511053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No61c81.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505066%33 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No29c80.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.652832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes38c79.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.32128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83fc…aae2backed No54c78.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes35c77.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.714358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes45c74.18$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.82737%10 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes39c70.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.451145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No75c70$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.462857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c69.65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0515356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No75c69.6$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.329656.3%54 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No53c66.19$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2744428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes24c63.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.512020%4 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No66c63.42$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.955062%31 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No43c63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.36914.5%10 W · 59 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6df1…3661backed Yes52c62.72$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.85850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes59c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.391936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.91580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+53.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+42.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb33e…28c3backed Yes63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.75100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x904c…4172backed No46c57.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes49c56.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.036346%29 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes74c54.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3132639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0d…e1fbbacked Yes53c52.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.873100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes49c51.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.362642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.53943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.54647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f7…b535backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292540%10 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c86…57c5backed Yes26c49.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.29650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes54c49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.721957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No61c49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.893565.7%23 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes51c48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.521060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e4…7b02backed No62c46.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No66c45.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.23560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5470…b04cbacked Yes53c45.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.241560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No47c45.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.152369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No34c43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.642433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…68b2backed No50c40.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.417345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.46556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No66c39.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.083663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No49c39.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.27561.3%46 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No41c38.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.783174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.