World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf553953f458cdddbf0c460384cfff43717a47f9eed31916a9c822c90ab4946c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 52c | 1,131$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.37 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 23c | 891.1$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.14 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 54c | 888.76$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.76 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 18c | 796.86$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.62 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 36c | 712.46$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.86 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 686.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.62 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 20c | 660.06$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.76 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 48c | 646.1$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.61 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 46c | 495$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.71 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 408.85$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.19 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 380$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.35 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 375.65$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 341$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 324$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.18 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 307.04$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.21 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 43c | 288.96$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.56 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 72c | 265.1$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.94 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 264.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 254.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.24 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 62c | 243.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 233.69$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.02 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 226.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 14c | 191.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.37 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 34c | 181.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 48c | 174.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 159.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 49c | 144.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 45c | 136.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 134.14$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 130.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…3d94backed Yes | 69c | 129.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5868…64c8backed No | 53c | 127.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 79c | 125.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 49c | 123.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 52c | 121.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…a232backed No | 72c | 113.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 44c | 110.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 48c | 110.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…01e6backed No | 63c | 106.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 37c | 105.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 57c | 103.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 100.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 37c | 96.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 63c | 94.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 53c | 93.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 93.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 93.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…2f35backed No | 73c | 90.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 46c | 87.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 86.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 61c | 81.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 29c | 80.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 38c | 79.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 54c | 78.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 35c | 77.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 45c | 74.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 39c | 70.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 75c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 69.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 69.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 66.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 24c | 63.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 66c | 63.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 43c | 63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 52c | 62.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…28c3backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 46c | 57.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 49c | 56.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 74c | 54.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0d…e1fbbacked Yes | 53c | 52.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 49c | 51.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c86…57c5backed Yes | 26c | 49.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…7b02backed No | 62c | 46.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 45.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…b04cbacked Yes | 53c | 45.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 47c | 45.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…68b2backed No | 50c | 40.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 39.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 49c | 39.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 41c | 38.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.