Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2824576b23918cac3e9e8376de4a08704a6be7b62e629023298205f1edf77130
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LYONof LYON, Disguised
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Disguised | 43c | 3,500$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.99 | 704 | 56.4%397 W · 307 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed LYON | 57c | 3,357$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.5 | 537 | 50.5%271 W · 266 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed LYON | 56c | 2,188$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.8 | 1,525 | 50.6%771 W · 754 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Disguised | 44c | 2,100$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b8…4b69backed Disguised | 44c | 1,520$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.99 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed LYON | 52c | 1,400$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 527 | 50.5%266 W · 261 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Disguised | 47c | 1,309$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.99 | 785 | 49.9%392 W · 393 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Disguised | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 300 | 50.3%151 W · 149 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed Disguised | 48c | 909.83$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.24 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…3585backed LYON | 57c | 867.58$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…cc35backed LYON | 56c | 693.09$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.61 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed LYON | 60c | 599.99$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 963 | 50.2%483 W · 480 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked LYON | 58c | 479$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.18 | 281 | 50.5%142 W · 139 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29a…bbdebacked LYON | 52c | 466.92$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.12 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…0558backed Disguised | 43c | 450.34$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 182 | 36.8%67 W · 115 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed LYON | 53c | 438$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.86 | 376 | 41.8%157 W · 219 L | -18.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…45dfbacked LYON | 56c | 348.05$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.34 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Disguised | 47c | 308.47$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.24 | 364 | 46.4%169 W · 195 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Disguised | 40c | 304.65$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.24 | 2,367 | 31.9%756 W · 1,611 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed LYON | 56c | 302.25$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed LYON | 55c | 299.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 1,117 | 48.8%545 W · 572 L | +40.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…3f07backed LYON | 60c | 299.3$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed LYON | 53c | 295.24$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed LYON | 52c | 251.15$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 1,181 | 66%780 W · 401 L | +70.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed LYON | 58c | 200.14$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 142 | 46.5%66 W · 76 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89c…2d1fbacked LYON | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 181 | 59.1%107 W · 74 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked LYON | 56c | 150.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked LYON | 52c | 148.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed LYON | 55c | 123.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25fe…ba20backed LYON | 56c | 106.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Disguised | 39c | 96.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed LYON | 61c | 94.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 655 | 63.2%414 W · 241 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199b…354ebacked LYON | 60c | 81.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…cc8abacked LYON | 54c | 72.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…821abacked LYON | 58c | 70.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Disguised | 45c | 65.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…620bbacked LYON | 57c | 64.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 325 | 66.5%216 W · 109 L | +26.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Disguised | 46c | 64.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 563 | 41%231 W · 332 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Disguised | 44c | 55.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…85f8backed Disguised | 48c | 53.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Disguised | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 760 | 30.3%230 W · 530 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Disguised | 47c | 50.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed LYON | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Disguised | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…5289backed LYON | 57c | 49.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed Disguised | 47c | 43.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Disguised | 45c | 42.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 501 | 58.3%292 W · 209 L | -17.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c64…929abacked LYON | 60c | 42.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 166 | 68.7%114 W · 52 L | +22.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed LYON | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed LYON | 60c | 39.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked LYON | 52c | 34.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 469 | 52.2%245 W · 224 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Disguised | 40c | 30.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Disguised | 45c | 28.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,577 | 48.4%764 W · 813 L | +17.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Disguised | 44c | 25.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 495 | 14.3%71 W · 424 L | -70.5wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed LYON | 60c | 24.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed LYON | 59c | 19.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 587 | 55.4%325 W · 262 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…476abacked LYON | 59c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 187 | 56.7%106 W · 81 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…60cabacked LYON | 57c | 19.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…1972backed LYON | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed LYON | 57c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 756 | 49.6%375 W · 381 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: LYON vs Disguised (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier PlayoffsLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 1 WinnerLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs Disguised - Game 2 WinnerLYON won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.