Champions League · resolved market
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x284c7d714f1d8edaf33b306094af4f81eb7a55d0dfbae3fee36da47082c41f5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd495…248ebacked Yes | 16c | 6,298$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 76c | 2,662$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 2,034$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.64 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 28c | 975$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.89 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 80c | 741.23$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.87 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…ae28backed Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f7…15febacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 79c | 563.05$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.24 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbf…3155backed Yes | 12c | 541.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 78c | 500$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 21c | 477.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 19c | 473.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 11c | 460$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 20c | 426.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…f478backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 19c | 299.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 14c | 297$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 9c | 271.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 13c | 268.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 96 | 24%23 W · 73 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…f606backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 19c | 224.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 15c | 209.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +8.6wins | +0.25per pick | 33cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…3d12backed Yes | 20c | 200.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 256 | 59.8%153 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…5df3backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 21c | 143.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…add0backed Yes | 16c | 139.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed No | 73c | 136.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…7897backed Yes | 20c | 111.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…2e00backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…b079backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +171.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…b97bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c1…692cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Yes | 21c | 94.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…ced9backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 27c | 60.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…aa7bbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e13…e6ffbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…8a06backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…267abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…1c2cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…2c09backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…5086backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…3f54backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…fe45backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1618…a456backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221c…43d7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked No | 79c | 47.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid CF vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Juventus FC win on 2025-10-22?No won
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.