Serie A · resolved market
Will Inter Milan beat AC Milan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2866645f8e679638f98e9486ba78a4bbb25fc387641c573e508f398bd8483c39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 42c | 5,458$2,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,165.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…4a44backed Yes | 58c | 3,789$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 58c | 2,335$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.35 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 52c | 1,384$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 58c | 808.62$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 41c | 711.8$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 58c | 582.92$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.41 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 59c | 578.01$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed No | 42c | 499.82$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 48c | 450$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 37c | 401.42$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…f913backed Yes | 58c | 364.05$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaed…c6bdbacked Yes | 49c | 350$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…bad3backed No | 44c | 342.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 43c | 264.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.05 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…5e93backed Yes | 34c | 217.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 46c | 205.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…8723backed No | 72c | 194.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 58c | 179$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0b…1f5bbacked Yes | 59c | 170.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…e521backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…c975backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5366…73aabacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…2043backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 58c | 84.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1673…e40dbacked Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…0badbacked Yes | 59c | 67.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670c…d5fabacked Yes | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 45c | 51.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9f…af72backed Yes | 60c | 51.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed Yes | 58c | 41.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 56c | 38.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4899…9c51backed Yes | 61c | 34.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…f9cebacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…ee3dbacked Yes | 57c | 33.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 58c | 26.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc586…35d7backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…22eebacked Yes | 60c | 22.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…46b2backed Yes | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…b71dbacked Yes | 58c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Inter Milan beat AC Milan?this page
- Will AC Milan beat Inter Milan?Yes won
- Will Inter Milan vs. AC Milan end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.