Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x287cba7174805a7c9862710f658af86888d2925a94efa0b2d67e510b7aa9d13a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 328.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 28c | 265.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 76c | 227.12$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 190.04$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 78c | 186.39$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 22c | 169.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 26c | 119.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 115.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…0ed0backed Yes | 77c | 112.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 100.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 71c | 85.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 84.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 83.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 74c | 77.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 29c | 76.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 42c | 74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 71.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 31c | 68.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…1b0bbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 60.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 64c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 25c | 50.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 73c | 40.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 39.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 41c | 34.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 33.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 77c | 27.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 18.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2738…95a0backed Yes | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.