Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98559a8a602b408751249ff191bdfae4cf2f75d86f2eaef8690b94d6bf231a27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a9…2bb1backed Yes | 42c | 671$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.36 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 32c | 285.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 40c | 253.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 60c | 207.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed No | 56c | 206.32$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 35c | 172.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 65c | 145.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 61c | 101.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 100.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 72c | 98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 88.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 83.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 69.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 60.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 48.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 71c | 48.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked No | 62c | 48.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 38c | 46.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 59c | 42.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 40.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 69c | 37.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 33.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 31.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 30.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 64c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed No | 66c | 22.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.