Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. West Ham end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2881597f5fb84dd45108f41d4703d7fcd56e3ac45496de94a2f1724568338b35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 69c | 4,924$3,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.61 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,429$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…49c3backed Yes | 22c | 2,261$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d43bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,682$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.53 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 33c | 1,515$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 15c | 1,087$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.11 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 78c | 730.03$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.1 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 14c | 485$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 24c | 403.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 68c | 299.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 15c | 260$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 74c | 203.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 16c | 183.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 17c | 164.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 327 | 36.4%119 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 32c | 162.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…8ce7backed Yes | 14c | 142.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea0…27f4backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b6…8ad0backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…1601backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…5f9dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 36c | 81.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 233 | 50.2%117 W · 116 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 29c | 79.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…6d30backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…4056backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 80c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…78aebacked Yes | 22c | 54.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 21c | 52.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +332%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. West Ham end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-22?No won
- Will West Ham win on 2025-02-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.