Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x288e79d798f5efa116616d2ecebc5a36551829367e59f795de6c0bd9d9fe112e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 931.76$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.18 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 485.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 15c | 437.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 378.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.07 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 68c | 282.48$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 51c | 201.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 47c | 196.06$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 73c | 187.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 62c | 187.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 151.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 150.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 122.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 112.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 104.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 102.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 20c | 100.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 61c | 98.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 96.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 88.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 87.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 76.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 58c | 70.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 43c | 69.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 68c | 68.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 47c | 63.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 62c | 61.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 35c | 58.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 55.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 65c | 55.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 49c | 54.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 51.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 34c | 50.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 49.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 77c | 48.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 56c | 41.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 40c | 39.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 66c | 34.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 57c | 28.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 38c | 27.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 26.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…4a94backed Yes | 38c | 26.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 25.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…68eabacked No | 59c | 25.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 61c | 24.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed No | 57c | 24.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 66c | 23.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 62c | 22.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 21.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 59c | 19.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 68c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 67c | 15.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.