Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bbe2a52fbc5cd41a01761bbd695fbd983893244365088e7921c32e55ad82b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 684.64$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 455.33$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 444.64$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 29c | 427.58$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.07 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 413.69$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 407.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 44c | 268.34$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 261.18$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 232.35$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.67 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 76c | 196.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 193.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 77c | 179.55$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.67 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 177$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 74c | 175.37$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 151.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 150.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 139.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 76c | 129.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 123.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 111.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 29c | 99.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 63c | 95.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 73c | 91.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 87.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 23c | 86.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 21c | 80.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 65c | 78.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 37c | 78.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 29c | 69.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 24c | 68.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 66.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 65.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 24c | 65.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 62.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 62c | 61.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 55c | 60.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 53c | 59.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 54c | 56.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed No | 73c | 54.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 22c | 53.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 66c | 52.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 30c | 52.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 29c | 51.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 58c | 47.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 33c | 46.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 71c | 44.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 41.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb36…64f4backed No | 76c | 40.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2876…752fbacked Yes | 30c | 40.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 45c | 39.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 31c | 37.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 37.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 75c | 37.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…09e0backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…41b8backed Yes | 38c | 35.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 31.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 44c | 31.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d815backed No | 70c | 31.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked No | 49c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0038…ad0dbacked No | 54c | 27.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 76c | 26.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 75c | 26.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 75c | 26.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed No | 78c | 25.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 74c | 23.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 49c | 23.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…4a2fbacked No | 54c | 22.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 57c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 68c | 21.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 20.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…b8aabacked No | 77c | 19.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 76c | 19.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 57c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 18.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 77c | 17.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 15.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 70c | 15.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008e…f878backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.