TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,344
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,344 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes48c684.64$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.464,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No75c455.33$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.738,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c444.64$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes29c427.58$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.0773927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes23c413.69$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.992,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No12c407.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.32,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No44c268.34$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0346626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes59c261.18$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.245,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No72c232.35$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.671,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes76c196.17$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5320231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes52c193.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.541,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef5e…b385backed No77c179.55$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.673161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No30c177$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.865,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes74c175.37$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3717553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes28c151.39$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1091,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes32c150.4$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.668335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No27c139.64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4cc…a95dbacked No76c129.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997081.4%57 W · 13 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No56c123.17$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.684,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c111.52$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.469,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No29c99.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.781,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes63c95.79$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7949941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No73c91.06$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9168645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c87.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9008…09f0backed Yes23c86.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7111939.5%47 W · 72 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes21c80.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5242036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes65c78.69$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2249547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes37c78.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2410053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes29c69.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.32,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8327…577dbacked Yes24c68.65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.059552.6%50 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No68c66.47$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3499963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c65.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.837,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes24c65.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.63,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes58c62.2$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.031,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedee…7139backed Yes62c61.94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.776330.2%19 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No55c60.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.681,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed No53c59.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.527846.2%36 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No54c56.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4993734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8431…6291backed No73c54.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.534564.4%29 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No22c53.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5961752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No66c52.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1820353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes30c52.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5811138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked No29c51.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked No79c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.520173.1%147 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick74cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3211032.7%36 W · 74 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes37c48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4543441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No58c47.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.461,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes33c46.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3710311.7%12 W · 91 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid+32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c44.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.442,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked No71c44.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6243430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No38c43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.352155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes26c41.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3159125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb36…64f4backed No76c40.7$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9330%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2876…752fbacked Yes30c40.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.64966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes35c39.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2612829.7%38 W · 90 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No45c39.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9990040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No70c39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.292,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes31c37.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2133139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes33c37.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.544,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed No75c37.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7911926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf760…09e0backed Yes33c36.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.36850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade8…41b8backed Yes38c35.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.85728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No72c31.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.812,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes44c31.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.751,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7444…d815backed No70c31.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.592157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.813,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.551,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17dd…056abacked No49c29.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.586913%9 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes53c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5852533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0038…ad0dbacked No54c27.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.111656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+71.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked Yes73c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1731262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3edb…aa1ebacked No76c26.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3616968%115 W · 54 L+0.7wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9838…8469backed No75c26.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205756.1%32 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed No75c26.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7156721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe06d…ac24backed No78c25.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.964032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.3wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No79c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.754,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No63c23.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1186362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes74c23.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.281,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No49c23.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No65c23.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x715e…4a2fbacked No54c22.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes57c22.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4235742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes68c21.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0442643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0520…ae9bbacked No76c21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.966660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No69c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.493,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No73c20.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.527771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a0…b8aabacked No77c19.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked No76c19.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9924951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked Yes57c18.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8830168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No60c18.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.743,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No66c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9144659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed No77c17.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.711438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No72c15.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No70c15.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.531,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x008e…f878backed No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick72cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.