AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28a709a013bb9bd277a8c57edc03a4bf0a0c52680b7330158c91b0ccd1769d95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 12c | 2,906$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 2,676$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 4c | 1,056$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 79c | 715.35$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.81 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 380$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 24c | 316$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 6c | 260$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 68c | 210.69$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 10c | 210.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 210$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 203.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked No | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 12c | 91.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 23c | 64.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 52c | 34.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 68c | 22.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 55c | 22.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31?this page
- Will Anduril have the highest private market valuation on July 31?No won
- Will Databricks have the highest private market valuation on July 31?No won
- Will Epic Games have the highest private market valuation on July 31?No won
- Will Kraken have the highest private market valuation on July 31?No won
- Will Lambda have the highest private market valuation on July 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the highest private market valuation on July 31?No won
- Will Stripe have the highest private market valuation on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.