NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28ca41ad94ac45f59e750baf4e5903251062955ceebe75036e1653832832c446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,455 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 21c | 902$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.7 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 79c | 762.04$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.03 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba55…cdecbacked Under | 74c | 370$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…0693backed Over | 25c | 258$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd66…0755backed Under | 72c | 255$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…1a70backed Over | 25c | 247$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4b…2389backed Under | 72c | 234$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Over | 25c | 200.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf27…b28dbacked Under | 75c | 194$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb3…34b7backed Under | 75c | 192$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff8…ca48backed Over | 25c | 191$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…ed98backed Under | 75c | 158$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 79c | 149$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 73c | 145.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac6…427dbacked Over | 28c | 126$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…66d7backed Over | 28c | 126$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…ec29backed Over | 25c | 112$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Over | 27c | 109.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…7a8ebacked Over | 28c | 94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 75c | 88.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0b…9cb5backed Over | 28c | 84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5d…5652backed Over | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…94cbbacked Under | 72c | 79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40d…e907backed Over | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd3…5d5fbacked Over | 28c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…4b16backed Over | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…d661backed Over | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc3…0d86backed Under | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…a259backed Under | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f9…e537backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 72c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5this page
- Senators vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.