NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc4be17c179083741c39cce9ba3c7eb9b3b66f9ecbc73b4e08335ff7b2ff30d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,673 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdda6…e5f3backed Over | 47c | 6,500$3,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,055 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…0880backed Under | 53c | 6,500$3,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,055 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 5,034$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.1 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 3,019$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.58 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 56c | 2,321$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.43 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 44c | 2,222$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.68 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 1,255$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.26 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Over | 46c | 920$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.2 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 56c | 566$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.04 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 46c | 490.85$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.88 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 54c | 422.39$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.3 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 56c | 383.54$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 44c | 356.37$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 44c | 318.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 44c | 223$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Under | 56c | 122.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 46c | 94.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…30ddbacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 35c | 87.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 63c | 52.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Over | 43c | 48.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 41.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 42c | 24.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…1f5ebacked Over | 45c | 23.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.