NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe055cfcae64492c7bd544fdd2692b126dbc53f167907d73908e3d55078e1d722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Senators, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,030 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Capitals | 66c | 852.53$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.21 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d98…4d2dbacked Senators | 34c | 752.87$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Senators | 33c | 430.53$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.22 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Senators | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Capitals | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Senators | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Senators | 30c | 250.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Capitals | 76c | 220$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Senators | 33c | 217$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Capitals | 67c | 208.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Capitals | 67c | 194.56$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Capitals | 67c | 178.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Capitals | 67c | 173$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Senators | 31c | 160.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Senators | 33c | 108.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Senators | 33c | 108.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Capitals | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Capitals | 69c | 87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Capitals | 70c | 72.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Capitals | 66c | 67.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Capitals | 69c | 56.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Senators | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Senators | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Capitals | 70c | 43.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…c3a1backed Senators | 33c | 41.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Senators | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Capitals | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Capitals | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Capitals | 70c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Capitals | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Capitals | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Capitals | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.