NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91b2681ab6f665bf06bc53690d5162001c761d0b9e4cd936b642f40e4b476ec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,542 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Over | 56c | 1,290$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.39 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 44c | 809.08$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.08 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 56c | 641.38$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.28 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 20c | 544.01$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…f2e3backed Over | 56c | 542.98$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 55c | 413.72$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.55 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 412.72$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 324.63$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.87 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 44c | 317.63$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.87 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 56c | 260.04$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.62 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…1977backed Under | 44c | 186.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…cfbdbacked Under | 44c | 178.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…46adbacked Under | 44c | 134.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 43c | 103$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 57c | 103$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 67c | 69.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Over | 56c | 68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 44c | 68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b1…4814backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 57c | 45.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 28.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…1f5ebacked Over | 56c | 24.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Under | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 51c | 20.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Senators vs. Capitals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.