Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28d7302c0590d38478a7fed90eafd79c98a6fbc4cc7d5a3f904cf29160283bb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 65c | 436.92$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c4…79dfbacked Yes | 35c | 328.92$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 317.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.73 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 224.45$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 6c | 168.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 167.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 153.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 149.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 32c | 142$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 33c | 114.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 42c | 109.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 108.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 101$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 58.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 22c | 57.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 27c | 48.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 69c | 43.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 32c | 41.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…2ed6backed No | 77c | 39.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 38.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 43c | 38.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 78c | 33.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 77c | 24.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 22.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b02…2433backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 64c | 17.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 16.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.