Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28e557fa1619f67d9ac5baf5a348fc799dc317f08e74ea230279c5cd6f954d73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 6,713$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,084$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.08 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,034$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,529$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.62 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 982.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 15c | 858.16$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 3c | 708.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 423$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 23c | 370.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 10c | 343.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 317.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 258.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 11c | 237.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 231.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 226.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0f…7eecbacked Yes | 7c | 222.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 12c | 200.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 11c | 178$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 177.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 173.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 14c | 169.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 12c | 168.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 162.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 145.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 143.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 12c | 142.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 129.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 16c | 125.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 16c | 119.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…a069backed Yes | 17c | 109.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 95.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 86.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 80c | 52.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…61b7backed No | 76c | 51.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 40.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 76c | 32.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 77c | 31.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 79c | 24.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 21.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.