CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Elusive vs shimmer (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x292e8ed377458ec68ac60b7d7a963f770280659205cec8148895737fb73c5e16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elusiveof Elusive, shimmer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5135…7217backed shimmer | 18c | 2,257$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.85 | 1,710 | 53.2%909 W · 801 L | +65.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa005…abb1backed shimmer | 17c | 806.97$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 239 | 52.7%126 W · 113 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…9c3dbacked shimmer | 21c | 578.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked shimmer | 20c | 543.24$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 5,194 | 55.2%2,869 W · 2,325 L | +131.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…94d0backed shimmer | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked shimmer | 18c | 469$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 223 | 53.8%120 W · 103 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Elusive | 80c | 319.26$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 805 | 34%274 W · 531 L | -51.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked shimmer | 19c | 294$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Elusive | 79c | 285$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Elusive | 78c | 234.68$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659b…679abacked shimmer | 16c | 178$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed shimmer | 7c | 152.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2,445 | 45.4%1,109 W · 1,336 L | -66.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed shimmer | 19c | 123.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f3…8c9bbacked shimmer | 18c | 121.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed shimmer | 18c | 114.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 2,484 | 24.7%613 W · 1,871 L | -318.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked shimmer | 17c | 96.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2,241 | 47.6%1,067 W · 1,174 L | -59.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed shimmer | 17c | 87.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,995 | 47.5%948 W · 1,047 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed shimmer | 19c | 87.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2,697 | 52.1%1,405 W · 1,292 L | +30.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd32…421cbacked Elusive | 76c | 65.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed shimmer | 20c | 61.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 135 | 67.4%91 W · 44 L | +19.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…a9d3backed shimmer | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 111 | 60.4%67 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…f5bebacked shimmer | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…2ff5backed shimmer | 23c | 49.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Elusive | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 582 | 48.6%283 W · 299 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Elusive | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Elusive | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,634 | 34.6%912 W · 1,722 L | -204.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Elusive | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…e9cebacked Elusive | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 203 | 80.8%164 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Elusive vs shimmer (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Elusive vs shimmer - Map 1 WinnerElusive won
- Counter-Strike: Elusive vs shimmer - Map 2 Winnershimmer won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.