Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x293c4914840c52b975d51ba29c3a2b58c322121a21222a5698867852d5090f81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,842$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 19c | 505.42$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 425.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 26c | 399.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 29c | 390.35$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 31c | 314.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 273.69$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 266.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 70c | 199.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 149.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 132.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…7f28backed No | 69c | 117.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 26c | 114.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 109.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 94.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 81.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 29c | 79.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 14c | 78.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 77.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 77.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 14c | 70.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 56.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 56.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 50.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…4c2bbacked No | 74c | 49.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 73c | 49.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 62c | 48.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 77c | 46.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 66c | 42.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 73c | 38.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…d998backed No | 78c | 36.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…757fbacked No | 76c | 34.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 40c | 33.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 33.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 29.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…9d0abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 63c | 24.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 22.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 76c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 67c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 65c | 18.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 74c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed No | 77c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.