Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6272ee2ce9276bf42e57216d0160c6b765bd5547e410a84f9e1a7132ef0320b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,202$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 62c | 627.4$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.58 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 48c | 414.58$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.42 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 38c | 411.04$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.31 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 28c | 287.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 268.59$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 254.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 46c | 165.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 54c | 161.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 158.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 69c | 145.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 8c | 143$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 72c | 121.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 57c | 121.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 53c | 112.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 27c | 103.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 97.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 71c | 95.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 52c | 95.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 48c | 92.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 90.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 54c | 89.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 48c | 84.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 39c | 77.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 52c | 76.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 33c | 68.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed No | 41c | 65.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 54c | 65.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 62.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 61.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 51c | 58.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 52c | 56.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 61c | 50.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 25c | 50.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf88d…9ba6backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6acc…dacfbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 42c | 49.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 52c | 49.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 46.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 48c | 46.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 58c | 44.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 44.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 42c | 43.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 46c | 43.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 52c | 42.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 39.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 55c | 39.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 39c | 37.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f39…1617backed No | 58c | 34.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa456…6d13backed Yes | 44c | 34.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 41c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 38c | 32.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…0bbfbacked No | 57c | 32.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 51c | 32.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 40c | 32.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 38c | 32.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 72c | 27.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 65c | 27.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 63c | 26.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 26.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 57c | 25.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…70f5backed No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 55c | 23.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 55c | 23.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 22.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 53c | 20.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 67c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…e592backed Yes | 73c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.