TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,526
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,526 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes51c1,202$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.614,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes62c627.4$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.5889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed Yes48c414.58$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.4214638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No38c411.04$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.311,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No28c287.74$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8865625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No40c268.59$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.413,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes41c254.61$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes46c165.79$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7368335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No54c161.93$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1726067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No52c158.63$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.872,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedeb…3553backed Yes69c145.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.82445.8%11 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick66cpaid-36.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No8c143$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.065,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.092,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes72c121.5$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5925549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No57c121.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.869959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No53c112.61$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No27c103.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.522,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7f…2e64backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502962.1%18 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No36c97.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.633,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes71c95.69$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7933058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No52c95.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9820161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No48c92.19$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c90.09$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No54c89.6$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No45c86$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.814,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe34d…41f0backed Yes48c84.17$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4712147.9%58 W · 63 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes39c77.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3386847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No52c76.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked No33c68.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.268164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd61…02d4backed No41c65.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.962548%12 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfba0…a083backed Yes54c65.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.110834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No59c62.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.482,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No39c61.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.361,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.451,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No51c58.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.991,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No52c56.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1412057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes61c50.74$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.971,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed Yes25c50.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3819648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.534934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2717364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf88d…9ba6backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6acc…dacfbacked Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.515545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No51c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4422450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes42c49.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.981,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No52c49.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3748672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes50c46.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.149,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes48c46.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8730652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x353b…e535backed Yes58c44.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.726547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes46c44.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.792,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes42c43.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.442049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No46c43.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2029751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf075…3f43backed No52c42.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0210866.7%72 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.217066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes38c39.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.669,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No55c39.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6611664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No33c38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.744659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No39c37.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.533,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes61c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.634067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f39…1617backed No58c34.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa456…6d13backed Yes44c34.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.111428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d0…1284backed No41c33.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.654447.7%21 W · 23 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No38c32.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6539157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf92…0bbfbacked No57c32.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.74425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes51c32.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No40c32.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8638258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No38c32.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2443859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed No47c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0440739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c30.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.524,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6318842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1342…c430backed Yes47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.93441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.667336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c29.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.693,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No53c28.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes72c27.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9682268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes65c27.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7532352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76b3…7d44backed No63c26.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9618449.5%91 W · 93 L-16.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No74c26.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4771464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No57c26.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9612363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No57c25.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3862770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c24.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c24.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a85…70f5backed No48c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.521154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No55c23.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.851,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad65…b49ebacked No55c23.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.797771.4%55 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes44c23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8837942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes51c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2733139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No52c22.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.717,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No51c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1939158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes53c20.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5242544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6514666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.847538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1153…707fbacked Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.924475%33 W · 11 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+27.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes57c18.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes69c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2844757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No60c16.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce05…7852backed Yes67c15.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.263348.5%16 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dae…e592backed Yes73c15.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.