TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,061 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcb98…b473backed Over67c3,000$2,010 inLost-$2,009.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under35c2,857$988 inWon+$1,868.721,99443.9%875 W · 1,119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over48c441.62$212 inLost-$212.4820241.6%84 W · 118 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over63c219.42$138 inLost-$137.991,02135.3%360 W · 661 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under38c154.12$59 inWon+$94.8212551.2%64 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under51c120$61 inWon+$58.8887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick68cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under33c114.03$38 inWon+$76.430856.8%175 W · 133 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under33c114.02$38 inWon+$76.3917058.8%100 W · 70 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under38c105.84$41 inWon+$65.1314353.8%77 W · 66 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under38c102.69$40 inWon+$63.1815954.7%87 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under33c100$33 inWon+$6791537.6%344 W · 571 L+30.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0327…23a4backed Over32c59.34$19 inLost-$18.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over48c47.73$23 inLost-$22.7137649.5%186 W · 190 L+20.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under52c39.81$21 inWon+$19.1122552%117 W · 108 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe7…f1a5backed Over49c20.21$10 inLost-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+56.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb985…cf92backed Over68c19.76$13 inLost-$13.441741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-27.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.