Champions League · resolved market
Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ce53e0718475dd25f45c3f0aadaa797423476d7ca3ecdc6c2a0c2a5ec7836a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 2,435$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.59 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…dc0abacked Over | 65c | 2,366$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Over | 42c | 2,353$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.62 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 1,427$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.55 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 47c | 1,109$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.18 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 1,060$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.84 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Over | 46c | 872.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 711.18$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.34 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8366…54ffbacked Over | 41c | 609.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 54c | 321$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.34 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 28c | 169.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.09 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Over | 41c | 169.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 34c | 137.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 54c | 124$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Under | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Over | 57c | 73.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x320c…bb82backed Under | 36c | 58.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 48.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 54c | 46.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 54c | 44.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Over | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 37c | 36.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 36c | 35.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 37c | 34.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 38c | 33.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…fd9dbacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 57c | 18.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 0.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 1.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 2.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: O/U 0.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: O/U 4.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: O/U 5.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz O/U 0.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz O/U 1.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz: SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5)SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz won
- Spread: SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz (-1.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.