MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x296062b88dee06f5695398d490336202594c3e3c6cd593a0a701543512dbb60f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 40c | 1,291$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.03 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 3c | 625.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 75c | 460.22$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 398.31$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 351.46$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 41c | 350.15$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 38c | 166.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.26 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 68c | 152.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 69c | 142.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 56c | 96.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 54c | 92.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 32c | 79.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 29c | 77.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 42c | 76.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 58c | 66.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 45c | 66.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 48.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 27c | 44.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 55c | 42.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 31c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 38c | 34.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 32.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 39c | 30.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…8d09backed Over | 68c | 28.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…e568backed Over | 68c | 28.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 78c | 28.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…ce26backed Over | 75c | 26.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…b9b8backed Over | 75c | 26.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 54c | 22.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.