MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8018d1cea98e43ad3d20953bafab0b3c356d2c9aea780bbea4826e5628644a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 48c | 110,000$52,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,200 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 52c | 105,745$54,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,987.52 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 50c | 2,576$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.15 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 2,125$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.56 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 76c | 2,013$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.41 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 1,619$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.88 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed Under | 54c | 1,610$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.17 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 75c | 1,600$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.48 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 50c | 1,490$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.18 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 1,469$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.62 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 1,262$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.21 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 997.9$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.03 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 783.02$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.86 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 51c | 659.04$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.11 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 14c | 500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 14c | 500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 366.72$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 14c | 203.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 62c | 187.28$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a0…bc3cbacked Over | 26c | 183.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 180.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 61c | 178.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 17c | 178.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Under | 23c | 178.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed Under | 50c | 174.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed Under | 50c | 174.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 50c | 174.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked Under | 50c | 172.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 71c | 170.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.46 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 52c | 140.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 47c | 125.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 48c | 124$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 110.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 108.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 46c | 100.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…1b45backed Over | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 71c | 94.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 55c | 93.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 85.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 81.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Over | 33c | 74.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 50c | 72.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 79c | 70.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…b61cbacked Under | 54c | 59.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 28c | 58.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 37c | 57.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 52c | 48.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…ce26backed Over | 40c | 48.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 53c | 40.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked Over | 37c | 40.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 44c | 39.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa6…49a1backed Over | 54c | 36.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 48c | 32.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 46c | 29.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 44c | 28.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 36c | 27.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…77e6backed Under | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Over | 49c | 25.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01bc…6c9fbacked Over | 59c | 20.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 19.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.