Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2988f2de31c529fab44a5e6ebfa1cfb2d654607fbeb4706351ac4ea2e86a7814
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 62c | 1,014$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.52 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 42c | 940.73$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.76 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 621.61$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.39 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 14c | 516.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.77 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 80c | 421.92$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 20c | 325.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.89 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 38c | 262.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 39c | 258.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 68c | 193.84$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.38 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 15c | 173.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.82 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 51c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 26c | 111.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 23c | 110.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7b80backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 15c | 97.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Yes | 21c | 94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 73c | 88.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 38c | 76.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 38c | 61.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 71c | 58.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 38c | 53.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked No | 56c | 23.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar vs. KF Valur end in a draw?this page
- Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar win on 2026-07-30?No won
- Will KF Valur win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.