Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x298acde3a40baf0babb1f98b4946bd216c2be106f81bff1c44d839c5c9770fd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,095$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.97 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 45c | 252.49$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.67 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 38c | 245.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.76 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 204.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 57c | 172.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 64c | 153.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 44c | 152.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 150.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 132.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 9c | 124.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 25c | 118.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 99.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 91.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 48c | 85.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 48c | 80.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 65c | 73.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 57c | 71.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 71.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 44c | 68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 24c | 63.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 58.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed No | 52c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 56c | 54.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed No | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 70c | 49.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…b6fcbacked Yes | 74c | 46.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 38c | 44.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 43.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 37.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 37.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 37.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 57c | 34.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90cf…3a84backed Yes | 30c | 33.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 32.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d8…166abacked Yes | 49c | 30.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 52c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 61c | 27.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 70c | 27.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…bbfabacked No | 59c | 27.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 56c | 26.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…bec8backed No | 56c | 26.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0c…ce20backed No | 63c | 26.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 54c | 25.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 45c | 24.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 55c | 24.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 57c | 22.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 59c | 21.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 54c | 20.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 69c | 17.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 64c | 17.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 16.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509b…65d0backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 77c | 13.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.