Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbdeac7dcf6ec332bf92f61d28fd9b50eab8664a67f6c722d4126841221d475c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,012$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 918.4$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 53c | 506.21$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.91 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 36c | 458.17$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.31 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 360.48$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.24 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 222.69$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…b6fcbacked Yes | 23c | 215$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 71c | 214.77$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 214.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 51c | 213.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 42c | 192.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 70c | 187.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 185$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 61c | 162.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 57c | 151.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 150.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…b14fbacked Yes | 44c | 143.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 60c | 100.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 31c | 100.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 55c | 87.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 83.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 63c | 81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 37c | 79.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 79.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 63c | 79.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 78.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 55c | 77.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 76.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 75.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 41c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 71.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 63c | 70.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 69.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 68.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 60c | 67.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 38c | 66.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 54c | 65.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 64.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 44c | 62.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 61c | 61.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 59c | 59.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 58.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 50c | 58.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 42c | 56.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 55.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 35c | 54.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 59c | 51.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e1…3f64backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…ae6fbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed Yes | 46c | 46.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 59c | 45.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 46c | 40.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 38.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d5…f8fdbacked Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 41c | 36.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7706…5b5bbacked No | 46c | 34.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 33c | 33.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 33.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 35c | 32.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 58c | 31.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…0b94backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 39c | 28.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 75c | 26.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 76c | 26.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 64c | 26.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 41c | 25.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 65c | 25.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 68c | 24.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 57c | 21.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 54c | 18.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.