TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,809
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,809 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes0c8,012$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114429.5%13 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes37c918.4$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.34,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No53c506.21$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.9145162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes36c458.17$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.3165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No56c360.48$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.241,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No57c222.69$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.673,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x400e…b6fcbacked Yes23c215$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No71c214.77$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9737056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c214.51$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes51c213.92$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes42c192.15$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3931442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No70c187.25$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.171,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c185$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.855,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No61c162.05$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.769959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No57c151.12$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9419148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes37c150.01$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.468335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ca…b14fbacked Yes44c143.72$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1717…1f7cbacked No60c100.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.166536.9%24 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba0…a083backed Yes31c100.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8910834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.251,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No55c87.41$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4659021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes36c83.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8966926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No63c81$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9717555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes37c79.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1245236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No54c79.35$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.283,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes63c79.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c78.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No55c77.34$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8525466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No44c76.47$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.924,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No63c75.93$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes41c74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.131,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes33c71.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.818,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed No63c70.85$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2513765.7%90 W · 47 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No47c69.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.924,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c68.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.967,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes60c67.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes38c66.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2542049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No54c65.81$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2439159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c64.63$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes37c64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.682,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes44c62.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4972837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No61c61.52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2499961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes59c59.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.415545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c58.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.293,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4e…f700backed No50c58.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.192560%15 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes42c56.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7634250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No38c55.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.452,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6962…0629backed Yes35c54.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.243438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No59c51.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5119648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.523436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e1…3f64backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241020%2 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-67.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb9df…9571backed No67c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5721173.5%155 W · 56 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked No68c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes23c49.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.699,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4427…0174backed Yes46c46.54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes59c45.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No52c43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8338258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes46c40.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.974337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No44c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5235854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No62c38.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.483,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29d5…f8fdbacked Yes48c38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.071118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes41c36.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8543842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes29c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1029740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7706…5b5bbacked No46c34.46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes33c33.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1124434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No61c33.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.952,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc255…b95cbacked No35c32.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.445228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed No58c31.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.424065%26 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c30.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.750373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0543859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x733b…f7f7backed Yes59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.67847.4%37 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac0…ace0backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.67463.5%47 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80e9…0b94backed No59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31275%9 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes39c28.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0520928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No75c26.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6282268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No76c26.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3929751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b3…7d44backed No64c26.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4218449.5%91 W · 93 L-16.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes41c25.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5318931.7%60 W · 129 L-40.3wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-47.9%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No65c25.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7944659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No58c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.535058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010228.4%29 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No68c24.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9941258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.944,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f6…a71bbacked No57c21.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.313366.7%22 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c35…4801backed No54c18.68$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.593056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No67c17.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.962,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.