Tennis · resolved market
Ningbo Open: Victoria Mboko vs Dayana Yastremska
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29974da4954c0deec830e37d02053cb3e483a3e07fe679003c82d6250780d1b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yastremskaof Mboko, Yastremska
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Mboko | 45c | 4,513$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,013.05 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yastremska | 51c | 2,999$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.1 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yastremska | 64c | 1,818$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.8 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yastremska | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yastremska | 64c | 1,075$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.08 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mboko | 49c | 812.86$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.63 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Yastremska | 53c | 796.28$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.55 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Mboko | 55c | 742.8$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.46 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mboko | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Mboko | 37c | 389.05$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.48 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Mboko | 59c | 300.2$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yastremska | 41c | 288.3$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yastremska | 49c | 262$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.88 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mboko | 55c | 209.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Mboko | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Mboko | 58c | 197.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yastremska | 68c | 176$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Mboko | 28c | 122.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Yastremska | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yastremska | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Mboko | 51c | 102.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Yastremska | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yastremska | 48c | 95.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Yastremska | 43c | 57.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Mboko | 18c | 54.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Mboko | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Mboko | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Mboko | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mboko | 58c | 39.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Mboko | 33c | 30.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Mboko | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.