Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Hungary (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b79ac25c09657a566318322f7f62253341f8a5a4264297af0b50190e1bece2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sloveniaof Hungary, Slovenia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Hungary | 30c | 3,352$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Slovenia | 70c | 1,020$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Slovenia | 71c | 736.91$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.63 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Slovenia | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…b560backed Hungary | 29c | 291.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Slovenia | 70c | 271.75$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Slovenia | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Slovenia | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Hungary | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Slovenia | 71c | 118$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Slovenia | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 459 | 49.5%227 W · 232 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Slovenia | 70c | 83.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Slovenia | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Slovenia | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Slovenia | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Slovenia | 71c | 78.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Slovenia | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Slovenia | 71c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Slovenia | 71c | 49.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Slovenia | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Slovenia | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 823 | 48.8%402 W · 421 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hungary (-1.5)this page
- Hungary vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hungary vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hungary vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hungary vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hungary vs. Slovenia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Slovenia (-1.5)Hungary won
- Spread: Slovenia (-2.5)Hungary won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.