Fifa International · resolved market
Hungary vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb65992c9546f0165b6f0fc0176eb3cb1cfbad5a0a11f1c8737ff318073167eec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9970…09bebacked Over | 25c | 13,186$3,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,247 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 7,360$5,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.14 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 0c | 7,288$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 21c | 1,238$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.29 | 143 | 23.8%34 W · 109 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 75c | 1,020$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.03 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2621…a233backed Under | 77c | 555$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 76c | 520.74$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 25c | 502.16$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Under | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 25c | 361.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 75c | 349.95$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 76c | 286$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 136 | 43.4%59 W · 77 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Under | 79c | 241.5$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 199.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 78c | 142.03$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6108…b26abacked Over | 17c | 135.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 22c | 126.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 75c | 112.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 167 | 58.7%98 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 26c | 102.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…5403backed Under | 78c | 94.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6ba6backed Under | 78c | 94.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…ba79backed Under | 78c | 92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 24c | 79.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…6e9dbacked Under | 78c | 65.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 16c | 64.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 22c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 76c | 50.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 46.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 80c | 43.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed Under | 78c | 28.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…a088backed Under | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 79c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hungary vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5this page
- Hungary vs. Slovenia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hungary vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hungary vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hungary vs. Slovenia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hungary (-1.5)Slovenia won
- Spread: Slovenia (-1.5)Hungary won
- Spread: Slovenia (-2.5)Hungary won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.