TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RED Canidsof RED Canids, Fluxo W7M
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,448 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda3a…381fbacked RED Canids52c10,110$5,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,854.121,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Fluxo W7M48c3,093$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.931,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked Fluxo W7M48c2,409$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.512842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Fluxo W7M48c2,260$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.851,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Fluxo W7M48c1,942$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93226448.5%128 W · 136 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed RED Canids52c1,876$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.4776953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed RED Canids53c1,284$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.2715148.3%73 W · 78 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Fluxo W7M48c1,197$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.524235.5%86 W · 156 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed RED Canids53c1,049$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.0949549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fluxo W7M23c929.97$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.892,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab2a…30edbacked Fluxo W7M48c730.19$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.4912347.2%58 W · 65 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed RED Canids52c480$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.413137.4%49 W · 82 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa033…4938backed Fluxo W7M48c410.77$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.173732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed Fluxo W7M48c403.66$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.766245.2%28 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6742…fdf7backed Fluxo W7M48c373.39$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.2330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Fluxo W7M48c339.08$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.761,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e08…f3c8backed Fluxo W7M48c304.68$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6983…88c3backed Fluxo W7M48c298.71$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.384546.7%21 W · 24 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef71…898bbacked Fluxo W7M48c289.67$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.042642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Fluxo W7M48c249.95$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9828240.4%114 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Fluxo W7M49c235.11$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0437641.8%157 W · 219 L-18.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed RED Canids53c182.7$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8774344%327 W · 416 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Fluxo W7M48c165$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.21,24134.7%431 W · 810 L-2.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb126…9848backed Fluxo W7M48c147.34$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.724632.6%15 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ddb…513dbacked Fluxo W7M50c146.06$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.551118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-57.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed RED Canids51c130$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.31,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Fluxo W7M48c110.44$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.012,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked RED Canids53c109.03$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6579345.4%360 W · 433 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed RED Canids52c101.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9629952.2%156 W · 143 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed RED Canids51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Fluxo W7M48c89.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7814732%47 W · 100 L-13.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x872c…40e0backed RED Canids52c86.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.525135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+2.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Fluxo W7M47c85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.951,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcf…056bbacked Fluxo W7M48c78.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.743644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a0…1145backed RED Canids53c71.4$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.564358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ea5…1bd5backed RED Canids53c54.95$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.831353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Fluxo W7M37c43.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.152,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Fluxo W7M49c25.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,38545.1%625 W · 760 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3761…39e1backed RED Canids51c24.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0311150.5%56 W · 55 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x049d…cc0dbacked RED Canids55c23.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.591442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.