TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RED Canidsof RED Canids, Fluxo W7M
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,659
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,538

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,659 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57f9…895dbacked Fluxo W7M29c10,611$3,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,077.3710954.1%59 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked RED Canids69c8,145$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,544.591,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked RED Canids75c4,682$3,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17859952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked RED Canids70c4,413$3,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.741,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Fluxo W7M31c3,957$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.031,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Fluxo W7M32c3,212$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.671,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked RED Canids69c2,800$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86870456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked RED Canids74c2,264$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.672,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Fluxo W7M30c2,263$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.741,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Fluxo W7M34c1,855$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.676953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Fluxo W7M24c1,841$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.231,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fluxo W7M31c1,824$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.432,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked RED Canids66c1,227$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.9967056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed RED Canids71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed RED Canids71c836.09$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.581,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Fluxo W7M28c815$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9413137.4%49 W · 82 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Fluxo W7M30c812.73$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.031,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Fluxo W7M18c776.81$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3676142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29f6…d6b6backed RED Canids77c727.22$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.682828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Fluxo W7M27c662.98$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.011,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Fluxo W7M33c599.41$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.856341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Fluxo W7M19c582.48$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.71,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Fluxo W7M30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Fluxo W7M30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,39943.7%612 W · 787 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked RED Canids73c491.9$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.811,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Fluxo W7M29c425.41$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.371,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed RED Canids71c423.94$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9415148.3%73 W · 78 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7c…c4c5backed RED Canids72c412.46$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.0821267%142 W · 70 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+11%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Fluxo W7M29c400.26$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7950549.3%249 W · 256 L+2.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f5…1700backed RED Canids74c397.63$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.267451.4%38 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Fluxo W7M29c374.09$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.171,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdda5…2471backed RED Canids72c370.98$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4123769.6%165 W · 72 L+30.0wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+18.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed Fluxo W7M28c341.71$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6828042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Fluxo W7M24c303.63$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5439246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed RED Canids71c300$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed RED Canids72c281.44$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8720756%116 W · 91 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Fluxo W7M9c275$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2585046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked RED Canids68c256.2$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.791,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked RED Canids74c247.86$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4495041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked RED Canids71c246.69$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8373237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Fluxo W7M27c244.03$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9580832.9%266 W · 542 L-43.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Fluxo W7M29c238.94$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1685442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Fluxo W7M33c232.86$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.961,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked RED Canids73c196.77$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.968557.5%394 W · 291 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed RED Canids74c193.12$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2854944.4%244 W · 305 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed RED Canids72c176.77$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.51,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed RED Canids74c171.28$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.922,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Fluxo W7M27c160$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.243233.8%146 W · 286 L-20.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc480…60afbacked RED Canids75c158.17$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9939747.9%190 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6bb…6b39backed Fluxo W7M25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.510435.6%37 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked Fluxo W7M25c150$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.514032.1%45 W · 95 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d83…272cbacked RED Canids68c144.24$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1659241.9%248 W · 344 L-16.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed RED Canids70c140.29$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0924759.1%146 W · 101 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Fluxo W7M25c140$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3542124.7%104 W · 317 L-51.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4f68…3e9cbacked RED Canids67c132.22$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.788236.6%30 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf0…4046backed RED Canids73c130$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.111361.9%70 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Fluxo W7M27c126$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.881,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Fluxo W7M25c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.533124.2%80 W · 251 L-33.2wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Fluxo W7M32c105.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.761,24134.7%431 W · 810 L-2.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ee1…f616backed Fluxo W7M31c105.15$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.67342.5%31 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Fluxo W7M24c104.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7669041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd87f…ec76backed RED Canids72c101.89$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.532055%11 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Fluxo W7M25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2548652.1%253 W · 233 L+2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Fluxo W7M28c98.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4467250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee9…20a2backed RED Canids71c96.17$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1812349.6%61 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Fluxo W7M30c95.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7445739.6%181 W · 276 L-37.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Fluxo W7M14c94.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.297728.6%22 W · 55 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Fluxo W7M28c92.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.932,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x485b…fc40backed RED Canids70c83.89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.964161%25 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34f9…12ebbacked Fluxo W7M27c81.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9930632%98 W · 208 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed5…8165backed RED Canids71c81.2$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7234844.8%156 W · 192 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e51…71d4backed RED Canids74c78.49$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4117658%102 W · 74 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed RED Canids76c77.57$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4242847.9%205 W · 223 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…2dc9backed RED Canids73c68.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.599645.8%44 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc221…fe97backed RED Canids74c66.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.295154.9%28 W · 23 L+6.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+37.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Fluxo W7M31c65.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4557222.7%130 W · 442 L-48.9wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Fluxo W7M27c64.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.723,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Fluxo W7M28c63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.711,64344.4%730 W · 913 L-42.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f38…4ddbbacked RED Canids73c62.15$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7819644.9%88 W · 108 L-16.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Fluxo W7M31c61.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.281,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Fluxo W7M31c55.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.421,57648.4%763 W · 813 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Fluxo W7M25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7525331.2%79 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Fluxo W7M32c54.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.371,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd7e2…8fb6backed Fluxo W7M23c53.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4226236.6%96 W · 166 L+24.6wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+27.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RED Canids66c52.22$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.762,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed RED Canids60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203834.2%13 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd166…666ebacked RED Canids67c48.9$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.96965.2%45 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Fluxo W7M36c48.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3136946.1%170 W · 199 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Fluxo W7M36c48.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3157349.4%283 W · 290 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Fluxo W7M36c48.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3142250%211 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed RED Canids73c45.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.42,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x557b…dfb3backed RED Canids67c44.68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.745062%31 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Fluxo W7M28c43.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3541651.2%213 W · 203 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Fluxo W7M31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.472637.7%274 W · 452 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed RED Canids72c39.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0114360.8%87 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed Fluxo W7M33c36.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37a0…1145backed RED Canids71c35.9$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.264358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad11…599ebacked RED Canids67c29.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.66771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+51.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf9…dde4backed RED Canids74c25.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5713156.5%74 W · 57 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked RED Canids74c25.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5215364.1%98 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.