Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29cecffe455733ac4af0075093f84df4084f813b5cfa2c6ac7e423addafcdd7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5000…2949backed Yes | 69c | 1,173$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 427.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 18c | 378.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 15c | 263.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 24c | 206.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 188$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 176.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 166.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 51c | 159.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 156.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 145.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 33c | 140.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…5d00backed Yes | 63c | 117.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 44c | 112.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 50c | 97.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 25c | 94.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 48c | 90.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9441…cc2ebacked Yes | 50c | 83.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 49c | 72.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 45c | 66.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 25c | 63.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 25c | 62.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 50c | 54.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 40c | 51.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 58c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 58c | 40.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 39.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…2babbacked Yes | 42c | 35.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…e087backed Yes | 44c | 34.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 40c | 29.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…5cbebacked No | 54c | 26.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 58c | 25.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 51c | 25.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 54c | 24.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 56c | 23.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 48c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c0…a2d1backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.