Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Leylah Fernandez vs Janice Tjen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29faf01782d4a868144d0d49109e890a9688048d03eabb4d46678a2099a7c221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tjenof Fernandez, Tjen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tjen | 70c | 5,933$4,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.6 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Fernandez | 43c | 2,107$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.45 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tjen | 62c | 1,612$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.88 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Fernandez | 42c | 1,155$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.55 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Fernandez | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Tjen | 49c | 978.29$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.51 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed Tjen | 72c | 922.39$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.27 | 260 | 45.4%118 W · 142 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Tjen | 26c | 704.67$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.46 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fernandez | 32c | 573$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.79 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fernandez | 18c | 518.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Fernandez | 20c | 516.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Fernandez | 35c | 427$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.82 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fernandez | 43c | 348.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.19 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Fernandez | 6c | 316.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Fernandez | 30c | 310.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.74 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Fernandez | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Fernandez | 74c | 241.89$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Tjen | 55c | 236.12$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.1 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Tjen | 29c | 173.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Fernandez | 74c | 135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Fernandez | 38c | 110.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Fernandez | 63c | 107.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 398 | 44.2%176 W · 222 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Fernandez | 43c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Tjen | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…aeefbacked Tjen | 64c | 91.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Fernandez | 34c | 85.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Fernandez | 16c | 83.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Tjen | 61c | 81.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Fernandez | 71c | 79.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Tjen | 29c | 79.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Fernandez | 77c | 76.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Fernandez | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Fernandez | 71c | 72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Fernandez | 39c | 71.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Fernandez | 38c | 69.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…b5a6backed Fernandez | 73c | 67.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Fernandez | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…c974backed Fernandez | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…5d26backed Fernandez | 76c | 65.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Fernandez | 39c | 51.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Tjen | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…fdb3backed Fernandez | 74c | 48.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Fernandez | 32c | 48.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Fernandez | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Tjen | 66c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 857 | 42.8%367 W · 490 L | -23.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Fernandez | 70c | 31.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Fernandez | 39c | 29.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…f81abacked Tjen | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d74…bb57backed Tjen | 65c | 21.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Tjen | 79c | 20.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tjen | 68c | 18.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…7298backed Fernandez | 73c | 17.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.