MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29fba2e037a0a29fb8ca3bc6acd12de5b80d6857e8850cba00c9c7e43632362a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 739.06$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.4 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 60c | 638$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.94 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 41c | 563.28$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.8 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 59c | 505.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.86 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab65…4a03backed Over | 41c | 435.84$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Under | 58c | 306.41$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.77 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Under | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 41c | 243.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 43c | 221.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 218$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 56c | 202.02$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 106.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae5…b814backed Under | 65c | 94.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 92.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 40c | 82.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 72.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 49c | 66.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 42c | 64.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 37c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 59c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 38c | 46.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 41c | 36.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5422backed Over | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…0321backed Under | 57c | 27.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 56c | 26.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 22.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 60c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 64c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- NRFI: Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.