MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e0abcdd2bffd5380607f3a27f8f2adb1c4b512ce19aa92aae64da65ed8a250
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Under | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,880 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 49c | 9,190$4,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,503.01 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 49c | 7,799$3,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,821.51 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 4,581$2,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.98 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 51c | 3,333$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.17 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 1,132$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.89 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 1,098$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.84 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 49c | 1,010$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.98 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 54c | 984.26$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.11 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 48c | 926.25$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.65 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Over | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Over | 46c | 786.43$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.35 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 592.5$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.03 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 49c | 510$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.1 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 435.44$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 49c | 402$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.98 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 55c | 223.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 51c | 205$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 49c | 204.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…2e1abacked Over | 45c | 177.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 55c | 152.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…c8e7backed Over | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 125$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Over | 47c | 94.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 75.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4e…5bf0backed Under | 49c | 65.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 52c | 60.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 49c | 58.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 39.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 61c | 35.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Under | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a5…a6edbacked Over | 43c | 31.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 63c | 31.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd13…62fbbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…98ddbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…731cbacked Over | 47c | 25.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 52c | 21.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…e9b9backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Under | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- NRFI: Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.