WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a361b09c110af4e470002ab1513ebb7cf60aa4ab8339f00a97b8c92d0db5160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Mysticsof Indiana Fever, Washington Mystics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 8,160$4,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,118.18 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 3,833$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.45 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 3,200$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 13c | 2,155$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.19 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 1,789$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 617.64$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…e3bbbacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 554.79$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.43 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 518$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.18 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Washington Mystics | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…6cb6backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Washington Mystics | 52c | 284.67$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +11.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Washington Mystics | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 170.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Washington Mystics | 49c | 119.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 77.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 68.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Washington Mystics | 20c | 60.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6128…b3e7backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 41.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 31.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 26.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 21.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)Washington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Indiana FeverWashington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 169.5Over won
- Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5Over won
- Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5Over won
- Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5Over won
- Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.