MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a8b3eca982b70c69a78c3d1e87f6bf63964548572c2e689819020e70ccf8894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed New York Yankees | 36c | 13,754$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,753.98 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 63c | 10,628$6,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,664.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Athletics | 64c | 2,834$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 11c | 1,745$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed New York Yankees | 72c | 1,185$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.85 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Athletics | 37c | 1,078$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.85 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 77c | 915.51$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed New York Yankees | 36c | 527.85$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.85 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Athletics | 64c | 380$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…0d32backed New York Yankees | 80c | 349$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…4e0ebacked New York Yankees | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 174 | 60.9%106 W · 68 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Athletics | 64c | 195.59$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 25c | 148$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 36c | 99.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Athletics | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed New York Yankees | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked New York Yankees | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Athletics | 31c | 41.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Athletics | 64c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 65c | 33.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd0…a3e3backed New York Yankees | 36c | 32.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Athletics | 35c | 31.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 63c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. AthleticsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-5.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-6.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-7.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.