MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76b7227738e41ea634b07e058ae4dc0eef7531b61544c8f05482c33e4f3ea483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 11,867$5,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,933.3 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 51c | 9,507$4,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,860.08 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 7,569$3,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,687.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 50c | 6,195$3,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,097.35 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 51c | 3,160$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.75 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 1,993$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 49c | 1,389$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.6 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 1,167$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.33 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 62c | 1,089$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 53c | 953$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.03 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 674.29$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 49c | 490.24$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.25 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5257…f324backed Under | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 50c | 380$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 52c | 309$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 306.13$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.31 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…7821backed Over | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 228.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 26c | 189.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 42c | 187.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 30c | 174.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 30c | 155.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 126.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 51c | 117.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Over | 72c | 113$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 28c | 111.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 44c | 96.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Over | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…d80bbacked Under | 33c | 63.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 59c | 62.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 32c | 44.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 43c | 43.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Under | 32c | 42.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 60c | 41.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 60c | 41.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 49c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…f06bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…9ce7backed Over | 48c | 31.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 51c | 29.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 45c | 26.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 21.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…3b5fbacked Under | 51c | 20.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…faf1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 62c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 60c | 16.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. AthleticsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-5.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-6.5)Athletics won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-7.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.